Changan Automobile (000625) Important Matters Review: July Wholesale and Stable Autonomous SUV Destocking
Matters: The company released its July production and sales report, and its monthly sales volume was 12.0 million vehicles, 7% per year. Comment: Changan CS series SUV reduced inventory in July, 四川耍耍网 and new cars will be launched in the second half of the year.Changan’s independent sales totaled 7 in July.10,000 vehicles, higher than -5%, -21% MoM.Among them are autonomous passenger cars 5.20,000 vehicles, previously + 2%, -22% MoM, the previous performance is slightly better than the industry’s -3%.The wholesale of CS35, CS55, and CS75 decreased by 42%, 24%, and 92% from the previous month to 5,991, 8,270, and 945 units. It is estimated that the subsequent new car listing will reduce the cash inventory.New vehicles that Changan plans to market independently in the second half include the CS35 Plus 1.4T (listed on July 27), CS55 mid-range change, CS75 Plus. Changan Ford estimated that the inventory increased slightly in July, and Changma’s chain improved a bit.Changfu sold for 1 in July.80,000 vehicles, at least -24%, + 12南京桑拿论坛% MoM, in line with expectations.The wholesale volume is estimated to be slightly higher than the top insurance, and the inventory has increased slightly, but it still remains at the level of 20,000-30,000 vehicles.Among them, Fox sold 4,808 cars that month, + 44% a year, + 14% month-on-month.The company plans to list the Fox Active SUV, the new cutting edge ST / ST-Line and the new Taurus on August 16.Changan Mazda approved for sale in July 1.20,000 vehicles, an improvement of + 18% a year ago, + 20% over the previous month.The replacement horse 3 Angkesera is expected to be available in September. The industry chooses strong β configuration and considers the double inflection point logic.The scale of the industry, we judge the industry’s sustainable recovery in the second half and 2020, it is expected that the wholesale growth rate of the industry will continue to decline and narrow to a positive growth, and it is estimated that the plate repair will form a catalyst.Among them, Changan Automobile A is the penultimate PB of A-share passenger cars (13 in total), and Changan B is the penultimate PB of A / B / H passenger cars (23 in total). At the company level, apparently the domestic production of Lincoln (4Q19 domestic Corsair, 2020) + explorer domestic production (2020) + the stability of the market channel will help bring a significant repair of the company’s sales and financial performance.Strategic mistakes, repositioning, and re-operations reflect the relatively low alpha but the expected difference in the passenger car segment belongs to a relatively obstructed company.The double inflection point of the industry cycle and the company’s operating cycle is expected to bring greater expected repair space. Investment suggestion: It is recommended to grasp the resonance between the new industry cycle and the company’s new cycle. We expect the company to return to its mother net profit for 2019-20207.9 / 480,000 yuan, corresponding to PE46 / 7.1 times, corresponding to PB0.8/0.7 times, maintain “Strong Push” rating, target price of 12.08 yuan. Risk warning: The macro economy is lower than expected, the industry sales are lower than expected, and Changfu new car sales are lower than expected.