Tesla to be “cobalt-free”
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Source: News from Automobile Commune 丨 Edited by Wang Xiaoxi 丨 Who can stop Tesla?
”Cobalt-free does not necessarily mean lithium iron phosphate.
As Tesla said, China’s stock market turned upside down immediately.
“Super capacitor” concept stocks skyrocketed, cobalt lithium battery concept stocks plummeted, Xiangtan Denka, Huayou Cobalt and other stocks even fell.
On February 24, wind data showed that the supercapacitor index increased by 5.
The core of all this is the “dry cell technology + super capacitor” combination independently developed after Tesla acquired Maxwell.
Previously, we were familiar with and discussed the possibility of solid-state batteries replacing the current ternary lithium batteries, and whether the CTP technology killed a “return gun” lithium iron phosphate battery could surpass the ternary lithium batteries, but Tesla took the shot, Let the industry stunned.
Tesla’s forthcoming “cobalt-free” battery will be announced on Battery Day on April 20. According to Industrial Securities estimates, it is probably a new type of lithium produced by Maxwell, “new high nickel crystal + pre-lithiated doped + dry cell technology + super capacitor”Ion batteries, and Ningde era CTP-based super lithium iron phosphate batteries two products.
What makes reporters quite puzzled is why only Tesla repeatedly set off a wave of evolution in electric vehicle technology?
Dry battery technology and super capacitor technology have not been applied before. Why is Tesla the first to combine and use it in electric vehicles?
Tesla’s speed is just like the undefeated East in “Swordsman”.
Can’t help but think, who can stop Tesla?
The purpose of rapidly reducing the cost of “cobalt-free” is, of course, cost.
Tesla is getting closer and closer to its goal of $ 100 / kWh, which is to say that it is in line with the cost of fuel vehicles.
A report issued by UBS at the end of 2018 showed that the cost of the 21700 lithium battery jointly developed by Panasonic and Tesla was $ 111 / kWh (about RMB 778 yuan / kWh), and the cost of Ningde Times was $ 155 / kWh (aboutRMB 1086 yuan / kWh).
Just a year later, Tesla has found a new solution?
If Tesla’s “cobalt-free” batteries can be mass-produced quickly, the cost will soon fall below $ 100, and the competitive advantage will be very obvious.
In fact, just like making its own chips, Tesla has been preparing to make its own batteries.
In February 2019, Tesla announced the acquisition of a 79% stake in Maxcapacitor maker Maxwell.
Tesla values Maxwell’s super capacitor technology and dry electrode technology.
Why is this super capacitor making such a big wave?
Prior to Tesla’s acquisition, Maxwell did not make much of a splash.
However, in the automotive industry, Maxwell’s installed capacity of supercapacitors is actually quite large. Until the end of 2018, more than 6.1 million cars worldwide were using its supercapacitor technology.
In terms of automotive use, supercapacitors are more of a power supplement for start-stop systems.
The biggest advantage of super capacitors is that they have the advantages of high power charging and discharging performance and long cycle life.
Simply put, it is equivalent to the cache in the power system.
In this way, the electricity generated during kinetic energy recovery can be stored in the capacitor instead of being charged in the battery. When the capacitor and the battery are powered at the same time during rapid acceleration, higher power can be burst.
In addition, there is an advantage that it is not necessary to heat the battery at low temperatures to ensure acceleration and recovery of power, and high-temperature charging and discharging of the battery is avoided at high temperatures, which can effectively extend the battery life.
This can avoid the inherent defects of many lithium batteries, resulting in qualitative improvement.
Maxwell has not yet cooperated with Geely and Volvo in 2018, and plans to use super capacitor technology for five micro-hybrid and intermixed models on the CMA platform, and it was originally planned to enter mass production by the end of 2019.
Therefore, originally it was “the essence that was bought but not sold”. When it came to the TO B market, it was instead a savvy Tesla.
Moreover, as early as 2013, Musk once played the nature of supercapacitors for batteries.
Even when Musk was studying for a PhD at Stanford University, he had studied it.
Can’t wait to buy Maxwell in 2019, Musk’s abacus should not be too fine.
In terms of core dry cell technology, it is reported that Maxwell can increase the energy density of the battery cells to more than 300Wh / kg, and it is expected to further increase to 500Wh / kg in the future, and this number will be 2?
3 years as a cycle to increase by 15?25%, meanwhile, battery cost will be reduced by 10?
This will far exceed the 深圳桑拿网 current limit of 300Wh / kg of ternary lithium battery.
(About the technical introduction of dry batteries, there are many on the Internet, so I won’t go into details.
) And the synchronous material of dry electrode technology is moving in the direction of cobalt-free, all-solid state.
Some industry analysts have analyzed that the dry electrode technology will become the key technology that Tesla and other battery companies will make a difference, and will be promoted in the self-built battery production line, mainly in the direction of NCA high nickel.
Once the dry electrode technology is successfully applied to lithium batteries, lithium batteries will take a real “solid state” step, becoming the most important breakthrough before the commercialization of all solid batteries.
In addition to battery technology in place, manufacturing equipment is also very important.
So, July 2019?
In October, Tesla also acquired Hibar, a company that specializes in manufacturing cell manufacturing equipment.
This time, the “pots and pans” are all over, and Tesla started building it vigorously.
At present, we are not sure what kind of “cobalt-free” battery Tesla is talking about, but it is clear that Tesla is targeting not only electric vehicle manufacturers in the next big game. After the battery cost is reduced,, Will be the biggest threat to traditional car companies.
Tesla’s ambition to dominate the world has been revealed.
Who can stop Tesla?
“In fact, Tesla’s attack on the battery is only the tip of the iceberg.
The impact of this “new species” on the sustainable ecology of the automotive industry is quite amazing.
We can see that Tesla is re-establishing the ecological chain of electric vehicle manufacturing.
According to Tesla’s disclosure, the current local replacement of parts for Tesla’s Shanghai Super Factory is 30%, and it is planned to increase to 70?
80%, and finally 100% domestic production.
In addition, the unit cost of Model 3 of the second-generation assembly line at the Shanghai Lingang plant will be about 50% lower than that of the first-generation assembly line at the Fremont plant.
In fact, the speed of Tesla’s factory has already surprised domestic counterparts, and the rate of localization is not surprising.
It seems that Tesla, who owns the “Star-sucking Dafa”, crushes opponents in this extreme way, which really makes all opponents feel terrible.
Including self-driving chips, Tesla has put aside NVIDIA and will soon be in mass production.
Tesla’s increasingly powerful voice in the battery field has also become a direction indicator for latecomers to follow suit.
This is even more pronounced in the capital market.
In fact, even the famous big bear Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas has recently changed his attitude. He released an investment research report on February 18th to set Tesla’s goals in the optimistic scenarioPioneer increased from $ 650 to $ 1200.
And Jonas said in the report that this forecast is mainly based on: Tesla may win 30% of the global electric vehicle market.
Specifically, this includes Tesla’s delivery of 4 million cars by 2030, plus the potential to supply other electric manufacturers with three electric parts, including batteries and electric motors.
Of course we must not forget that the neutral scenario given by Jonas is expected to be $ 500, which is a reasonable price.
In addition, Tasha Keeney, an investment management company analyst at Ark Investment Management, recently said that it is expected to reach $ 6,000 in the next five years.
In addition, she believes that Tesla’s market value will exceed $ 1 trillion.
This is an incredible, super optimistic forecast.
Tesla delivered 36 to users in 2019.
750,000 electric vehicles, a 50% increase over 2018.
As of the end of 2019, the combined production capacity of Tesla’s two production bases in the United States and China has reached 640,000 units (will increase to 740,000 in the second half of 2020).
After Tesla broke through to maximize capacity, delivery was no longer an issue.
In 2020, Tesla is still running fast and getting faster.
Then, we can understand the meaning by comparing one data.
In 2019, according to data from the China Federation of Automobile Manufacturers, the wholesale sales of pure electric vehicles in China’s new energy vehicles was 82.
Among them, online car accounted for at least.
The sales of a Tesla is close to half of ours, and it is still the main product for private purchases of more than 300,000 yuan.
On February 19, the British “Financial Times” “citing informed sources” further confirmed that lithium iron phosphate batteries purchased from the Ningde era will be used in the domestic 3 basic version.
This means that the domestic Model 3 also has room for further price reductions.
Musk’s goal is to reduce the price of the Model 3 to 20 million.
The friends around the reporter, there are 200,000 yuan Tesla eagerly looking forward to “really fragrant”.
In addition, since its launch last year, Tesla’s CyberTruck, an “ugly new realm” electric pickup, has booked more than 500,000 units.
Therefore, looking back, letting Tesla land in China, this “catfish effect” has caused a very intense chain reaction.
The enlightenment that Tesla, which is about to be “cobalt-free”, has given the Chinese automotive industry is also extremely profound.
Wider than the sky . Wang Xiaoxi THE END